NCAA Tournament Odds, Betting Lines & Point Spreads Conference: All America East American Atlantic 10 ACC Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky Big South Big Ten Big West CAA CUSA Horizon League Ivy MAAC MAC MEAC MVC Mountain West Northeast Ohio Valley Pac-12 Patriot SEC Southern Southland SWAC Summit Sun Belt WCC WAC Great West Independents. The National Championship game is scheduled for April 5, 2021. March Madness National Championship Odds March Madness odds via BetMGM Sportsbook, last updated Feb. As we prepare for championship weekend, the oddsmakers are sharing their thoughts on who will earn automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament by claiming their conference titles. Among the favorites are Virginia, Baylor, Ohio State, Colorado, and Tennessee, among others.
Earning a top seed in the NCAA Tournament is a huge advantage. In fact, number one seeds are almost 4 times more likely to win the championship than the next-best seed. Going back to the start of the modern bracket era, we have used the results of each round in the tournament so far to calculate the odds of each seed making it to each round.
This should be of good use when filling out your bracket. Below you will find the probabilities for each seed to advance to that round based on historical win percentages. So, 85% of number three seeds make it to the second round, but just over 11% make the Final Four, or about one every 2 years.
The final column is tabled “True Odds”. These would be the fair odds for each seed to win the NCAA Tournament based on historical results. In other words, these are the implied probabilities that one of the four teams at that seed wins the National Championship. There are many other factors that go into making truly expert bracket picks, but this is a good place to start, especially to guide you through later rounds.
Odds to Advance to Each Round of the Tourney by Bracket Seed
| Seed | 2nd Round | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final Four | Champ Game | Win Champ | True Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 99.3% | 85.7% | 69.3% | 40.7% | 24.3% | 15.7% | 62.9% |
| 2 | 94.3% | 63.6% | 45.7% | 20.7% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 14.3% |
| 3 | 85.0% | 52.9% | 25.7% | 12.1% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 11.4% |
| 4 | 79.3% | 47.1% | 15.0% | 9.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 5 | 64.3% | 33.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 62.9% | 30.0% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 7 | 60.7% | 19.3% | 7.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 8 | 48.6% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 9 | 51.4% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10 | 39.3% | 16.4% | 5.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11 | 37.1% | 15.7% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12 | 35.7% | 15.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13 | 20.7% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14 | 15.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15 | 5.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Tournament Win/Loss Statistics by Seeding
While those numbers give us a broad look at the probabilities for teams at different positions in the tournament, it may also help to know the exact results for each seed. You’ll find the records and win percentages in every bracket since 1985 in the tables below. These differ from the table above in that they show how each team does in each round once they have reached it.
First Round
The opening slate is unsurprisingly the most predictable. At seeds 1-4 we can advance teams in our bracket without much worry of an upset. The only real surprise is that 12 seeds perform as well against 5 seeds as 11s do against 6 seeds. 2018 marked the first time in history a #1 upset a #16, kudos to you if you picked UMBC over Virginia! The odds are this won’t happen again for a long time. You are better off assuming all #1 seeds are going to advance past this round.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 139 | 1 | 99% |
| 2 | 132 | 8 | 94% |
| 3 | 119 | 21 | 85% |
| 4 | 111 | 29 | 79% |
| 5 | 90 | 50 | 64% |
| 6 | 88 | 52 | 63% |
| 7 | 85 | 55 | 61% |
| 8 | 68 | 72 | 49% |
| 9 | 72 | 68 | 51% |
| 10 | 55 | 85 | 39% |
| 11 | 52 | 88 | 37% |
| 12 | 50 | 90 | 36% |
| 13 | 29 | 111 | 21% |
| 14 | 21 | 119 | 15% |
| 15 | 8 | 132 | 6% |
| 16 | 1 | 139 | 1% |
Second Round
The second round is where you start to find a lot of variation versus what you would expect based strictly on seeding. Number nine seeds have been terrible in their second game, while ten seeds win their second round games over 40% of the time. Top ranked teams at this point in the tournament are still a safe bet with a #1 being upset only once every 3-4 years.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 120 | 19 | 86% |
| 2 | 89 | 43 | 67% |
| 3 | 74 | 45 | 62% |
| 4 | 66 | 45 | 59% |
| 5 | 47 | 43 | 52% |
| 6 | 42 | 46 | 48% |
| 7 | 27 | 58 | 32% |
| 8 | 13 | 55 | 19% |
| 9 | 7 | 65 | 10% |
| 10 | 23 | 32 | 42% |
| 11 | 22 | 30 | 42% |
| 12 | 21 | 29 | 42% |
| 13 | 6 | 23 | 21% |
| 14 | 2 | 19 | 10% |
| 15 | 1 | 7 | 13% |
| 16 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Sweet 16
The Sweet 16 is where the better ranked teams really start to settle in. If you are a 1-3 seed that has made it this far, chances are you are going to advance. One interesting note here is that 8 seeds that have made it this far are more likely to advance than 3-7 seed. The trick, of course, is picking which 8 seed is going to advance. A #8 has been in this situation in just 37% of the brackets in the last 35 years.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 97 | 23 | 81% |
| 2 | 64 | 25 | 72% |
| 3 | 36 | 38 | 49% |
| 4 | 21 | 45 | 32% |
| 5 | 9 | 38 | 19% |
| 6 | 14 | 28 | 33% |
| 7 | 10 | 17 | 37% |
| 8 | 8 | 5 | 62% |
| 9 | 4 | 3 | 57% |
| 10 | 8 | 15 | 35% |
| 11 | 8 | 14 | 36% |
| 12 | 1 | 20 | 5% |
| 13 | 0 | 6 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Elite 8
This round appears to be the biggest equalizer. Teams who reach this point in the tournament are obviously talented and have either had an easy bracket thus far or have overcome some obstacles. This makes the Elite 8 ripe for upsets.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57 | 40 | 59% |
| 2 | 29 | 35 | 45% |
| 3 | 17 | 19 | 47% |
| 4 | 13 | 8 | 62% |
| 5 | 7 | 2 | 78% |
| 6 | 3 | 11 | 21% |
| 7 | 3 | 7 | 30% |
| 8 | 5 | 3 | 63% |
| 9 | 1 | 3 | 25% |
| 10 | 1 | 7 | 13% |
| 11 | 4 | 4 | 50% |
| 12 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Final Four
Similar to the Elite 8, teams who make it this far, regardless of seed, are going to be a tough out. All this means is that if you select a non-number-one to make the Final Four, you shouldn’t feel obligated to pick them to lose at this point.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34 | 23 | 60% |
| 2 | 13 | 16 | 45% |
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 65% |
| 4 | 3 | 10 | 23% |
| 5 | 3 | 4 | 43% |
| 6 | 2 | 1 | 67% |
| 7 | 1 | 2 | 33% |
| 8 | 3 | 2 | 60% |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 10 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 11 | 0 | 4 | 0% |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Championship Game
No surprise here that #1s win the Championship more often than any other, especially considering seven championship games have featured two number one teams. No team seeded higher than 8th has reached the title game as of yet, but at some point one would have to assume a 9 or 10 can break through.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 12 | 65% |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 38% |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 36% |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 33% |
| 5 | 0 | 3 | 0% |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 50% |
| 7 | 1 | 0 | 100% |
| 8 | 1 | 2 | 33% |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
The Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0) and Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0) square off at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., Monday at 8 p.m. ET in the CFP National Championship. Below, we analyze the Ohio State-Alabama National Championship betting odds and lines, with college football picks and predictions.
Also see:
Prop Bet Payday: Alabama vs. Ohio State prop predictions5 Ohio State prop predictionsHow to bet on the National Championship gameCFP National Championship betting predictions with Jason McIntyreAlabama vs. Ohio State: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:05 a.m. ET.
Money line: Alabama -350 (bet $350 to win $100) Ohio State +265 (bet $100 to win $265)Against the spread/ATS: Alabama -8.5 (-110) Ohio State +8.5 (-110)Over/Under: 74.5 (O: -115 U: -105)Special National Championship Betting Promotion!
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Alabama vs. Ohio State: Three things to know
Alabama posted 49.7 points per game to rank second in the nation, and they checked in fifth in the country in both total yards per game (543.9) and passing yards per game (354.1). QBNcaa National Champion Odds
Mac Jones threw for a school record 4,036 passing yards, and Heisman Trophy WR DeVonta Smith was on the receiving end for 105 receptions, 1,641 yards and 20 touchdowns. The Crimson Tide could welcome back WR Jaylen Waddle (ankle). He had 25 receptions for 557 yards and four touchdowns in his first four games before he was injured on the opening kickoff against Tennessee on Oct. 24.There were reports this game could be pushed back to Jan. 18 due to player availability concerns for Ohio State stemming from COVID-19 issues, but OSU, Alabama and the SEC are all planning to play Monday, Jan. 11. Big Ten officials are the only ones to raise concerns about the Buckeyes playing at this point due to a potential shortage of personnel.The last time these teams played, Ohio State dropped Alabama 42-35 in the 2014-15 Sugar Bowl before topping Oregon in the National Championship. Alabama is looking for its first title since pushing past Georgia in a 26-23 overtime win Jan. 8, 2018.Ncaa Basketball Champion Odds
Alabama vs. Ohio State: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Alabama 45, Ohio State 34
Money line (ML)
Alabama (-350) will cost you more than three times your potential return, and that’s just too risky for me. There is just no value there, so look to the spread instead. PASS.
Against the spread (ATS)
ALABAMA -8.5 (-110) is a machine on offense, as the Jones to Smith connection has been amazing. If the Crimson Tide are able to get Waddle back into the mix, too, that’s going to be too much for Ohio State to handle.
The Buckeyes offense looked amazing in topping Clemson in the national semifinal. RB Trey Sermon ran wild, QB Justin Fields displayed pinpoint accuracy and the defense did its job. Ohio State also entered with a chip on its shoulder, as it felt disrespected by Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney, who ranked them No. 11 due to a lack of games played.
‘Bama head coach Nick Saban isn’t giving them anything to feel disrespected about, although his daughter might need her phone taken away. She offered an opinion that the COVID-19 concerns for the Buckeyes were fabricated in order to give Fields some extra time to recover from a mid-body injury.
The Tide will “roll” up huge points on offense, and the Buckeyes will fade in the second half. Back Alabama to win by at least 9 points.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 74.5 (-115) is worth a play outdoors on the fast track at Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida. The weather will be nice, and conditions optimum for the two sides to show off their speed. Both sides have plenty of speed to burn.
It will be an entertaining, and high-scoring first half, so betting OVER 37.5 (-130) on the first half line is certainly warranted, too.
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Ncaa Champion Odds
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